Ukraine: Red Lines and Nuclear Warnings

Why is Russia so concerned that if Ukraine is given weapons to attack targets inside Russia, it could lead to direct Russia-NATO conflict and possibly nuclear war?

A naive analysis would just ask why, if Russia can attack targets inside Ukraine, then surely Ukraine can attack targets inside Russia. Although this seems like a rational argument, there are strong why this could escalate to direct NATO-Russia confrontation and nuclear war.

As United States Secretary of Defense during the Cuban Missile Crisis, Robert McNamara stated¹:

Kennedy was rational; Khrushchev was rational; Castro was rational. Rational individuals came that close to total destruction of their societies. And that danger exists today.

War Of Attrition

The initial Russian invasion could have led to a negotiated settlement², however, after the failure of these negotiations it was obvious that the war would take longer than originally planned.

There was therefore a change of tactic by the Russians to carry out a war of attrition. This involved withdrawal by Russia, from some areas, such as Kherson. While this was reported in the West as a major blow to Russia³, this was option suggested by Sergey Surovikin (General Armageddon) before the withdrawal. Extensive fortifications were then built by Russia along the conflict zone – known as the Surovikin Line⁴.

Although Ukraine had an extensive military and even arms production, it could not compete with Russian military production and without Western support Ukraine would have run out of weapons very early on⁵. Therefore, the war of attrition is against NATO. Despite claims to the contrary⁶, Russia is now massively outproducing Western arms manufacturers⁷. Admiral Rob Bauer, Nato’s most senior military official, told the Warsaw Security Forum that in terms of NATO arms stocks “the bottom of the barrel is now visible”⁸.

Territorial gain has not been a major Russian objective, compared with depleting Ukrainian and NATO’s ability to fight a war.

Weapons Manufacture, Storage and Distribution

In a major military conflict such as the one in Ukraine, a large part of the operation is logistics. This is not just weapons but the hundreds of thousands of soldiers need feeding, medical supplies, toilet roll etc. Just in terms of arms supply, usage is massive, with over 20,000 artillery shells being used by Russia every day⁹. These are prime targets in degrading your enemy’s ability to fight a war.

When David Cameron said that weapons supplied by the UK could be used to attack targets inside Russia, there was a strong reaction from Russia, with warmings that UK military sites may be targetted by Russia¹⁰. Secretary of State Antony Blinken¹¹ and Secretary-General of NATO, Jens Stoltenberg, have made similar statements¹².

As well as weapons being depleted, there is also a growing shortage of cannon fodder in Ukraine¹³ and President Macron of France has suggested that French troops could be deployed in Ukraine¹⁴.

This led to the French and UK being summoned to the Kremlin, where stark warnings were given¹⁵. At the same time, Russia announced tactical nuclear weapons drills¹⁶.

The equivalent of attacks on targets inside Russia would be equivalent to Russia attacking targets inside NATO countries. Although President Putin has said there is ‘no need’ for using nuclear weapons in Ukraine¹⁷, he has warned that they would be willing to attack NATO targets if NATO assets are used in attacks inside Russia even this risks escalation and the possible use of nuclear weapons.

The targetting of the logistic infrastructure would be similar to the way that the USA bombed Laos and Cambodia during the Vietnam War to disrupt the Ho Chi Minh trail. Although Laos and Cambodia were not officially involved in the war, they were used by the Vietnamese to transport troops and equipment and therefore targetted by the USA.

Strategic Targets

Another concern for Russia is that strategic targets are being hit in Russia. For example, two early warning radar was recently damaged by Ukrainian actions¹⁸, ¹⁹. While previous strategic bases nuclear bases have been targetted by Ukraine²⁰ there was some justification for this in that the base was being used in attacks against Ukraine. However, there seems little for Ukraine to gain by targetting Russian nuclear early warning systems. Is the Ukraine war being used as a mask to hide a wider NATO agenda against Russia?

NATO Support In Targetting

Attacks on long range targets within Russia can only be done with GPS positioning and reconnaissance data. It is unlikely that Ukraine will have this without extensive NATO support. Many of the systems such as Storm Shadow can be pre-configured and there is a big question about where this is done.

If all of this is done by NATO countries and all the Ukrainian military have to do is press the button then who actually carries out the attack?

Nuclear Warnings

Despite what may be heard on the media, there seems to be no intention of Russia using nuclear weapons against Ukrainian forces – there is “no need”. However, there are plenty of warnings²¹ that further escalation, in particular the use of NATO supplied weapon to attack targets inside Russia could lead to direct Russia-NATO conflict which could end in the use of nuclear weapons.

In particular the targetting of Russian nuclear early warning systems is particularly worrying. Would like-for-like response from Russia could be targetting Fylingdales early warning system in Yorkshire.