When people talk about “peace and understanding”, I often think that they get it the wrong way round – we need some level of understanding before we can get peace.
I have written several posts about the ongoing war in Ukraine and feel, following some subsequent discussion, that it would be useful to explain about events in Russia following the collapse of the Soviet Union.
This is not about understanding or even appeasing Putin, but having some understanding what the Russian people have been through.
Effects Of The Collapse Of The Soviet Union
Many people in The West see the collapse of the Soviet Union with people freed from oppression and able to enjoy the benefits of the market economy.
However, the actual effects are in stark contrast.
Although the Soviet Union, had been in decline and already lost its place as the world’s second-largest economy, the collapse had a catastrophic effect on the people in Russia and several of the former republics in the union and satellite states.
GDP per capital in Russia almost halved1 and the Russian male life expectancy fell from over 64 to below 58 in a couple of years2. It is estimated that there were 3.4million Russian premature deaths 1990-1998 due to collapse3.
The effects in countries outside the Russian Federation were also extremely negative.
A study in 2000 found that over 50 million children in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union live in poverty and are exposed to tuberculosis levels usually associated with the Third World4
In 1997 Ukraine’s GDP had fallen by 60 percent since 19915 with inflation reaching Inflation 10,000% in 1993.
The Reason For The Collapse
There are many factors, both internal and external, why the Soviet Union collapsed and this has resulted in much speculation and debate. Although I do not want to go into this here, I would like to make some observations.
At the end of 1985 world crude prices fell from over $30 to less than $12 per barrel. Prices would not go above $30 per barrel again until 20006. At the time, the Soviet Union was, by far, the largest produce of crude oil and this cut in revenue was definitely a factor in the economic stagnation/decline.
The Russian intervention in Afghanistan is often cited as an important, and often the factor in the collapse. However, I think its importance is overstated, since the Russians withdrew for similar reasons as that of the USA and its allies after their intervention.
After the Soviet withdrawal the government of Mohammad Najibullah, in name at least, survived until April 19927 after the Soviet collapse and the end of the financial and other support for the Najibullah government. The Russian intervention only lasted 10 years compared to the 20 years of Western intervention.
One factor that is often overlooked in the West is the effects of the Chernobyl disaster. In the film The Battle of Chernobyl8 Mikhail Gorbachev stated glasnost was introduced due to the accident. As a side note, the film is well worth watching in its own right.
As with the break-up of Yugoslavia which occurred about the same time, the break-up led to political instability fuelled a surge in ethnic conflict in many regions: Armenia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Chechnya…
People’s View Of The Break-Up
In 1991 a referendum was held in the Soviet Union asking if they wanted to remain in the Soviet Union9. Although some republics boycotted the referendum, the overwhelming majority of the people wanted to remain within the union. The support was often stronger in republics outside Russia.
As so often happens, the views of the people were ignored.
A Gallop poll in 2013 showed that many people saw the break-up of the Soviet Union as harmful10. Again, this view was stronger in some republics outside Russia.
Although there are people who call for the re-establishment of the Soviet Union, President Putin has said, “Whoever does not miss the Soviet Union has no heart. Whoever wants it back has no brain.”
Effect On The People’s View Of Leaders
Although Mikhail Gorbachev is seen by many as a great hero by many in the West, the opposite is true in Russia. He is deeply disliked by many Russians, with less than 10% viewing him in a positive light, compared with over 60% for Putin and even over 30% for Joseph Stalin11.
As can be seen in the graph of GDP per capital above, the decline stopped in the late 1990s. Although this upturn started during the Boris Yeltsin presidency, most of it occurred after Putin took over and may be one of the factors that gives President Putin the support that he does.
Propaganda
The views of the people of Russia are often dismissed because it is claimed that they are subject to intense pro-Russian propaganda. While this is undoubtedly true to some extent, it is important to note that it is still what they believe.
It is extremely dangerous and extremely arrogant just to say “they do not know what is good for them“. In the UK, we can also be misled by inaccurate information.
If our freedom of the press keeps us so well-informed, why is it that so many people are unaware that:
- the Soviet Unions was, by far, the largest oil producer and the second-largest economy in the world
- millions died as the result of the end of the Soviet Union and attempted transition to a market economy
- that Mikhail Gorbachev is strongly disliked in Russia rather than seen as a great liberator
The dissolution of the Soviet Union is often portrayed as a great victory for the West. However, with many of the underlying issues (party covered in my previous post) it might be, as Ferdinand Foch stated at the signing of the Treaty of Versailles “an armistice for twenty years.”
- Constant GDP per capita for the Russian Federation; Federal Reserve Bank (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NYGDPPCAPKDRUS) ↩︎
- Institute of Demography of HSE Vishnevsky; (https://www.demoscope.ru/weekly/pril.php) ↩︎
- Premature Deaths: Russia’s Radical Economic Transition in Soviet Perspective; Europe-Asia Studies Volume 53, 2001 – Issue 8 (https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09668130120093174) ↩︎
- Study Finds Poverty Deepening in Former Communist Countries; The New York Times; 12 October 2000 (https://www.nytimes.com/2000/10/12/world/study-finds-poverty-deepening-in-former-communist-countries.html) ↩︎
- Can Ukraine Avert a Financial Meltdown?; World Bank Transition Newsletter; June 1998 (https://web.archive.org/web/20000712025953/http://www.worldbank.org/html/prddr/trans/june1998/ukraine.htm) ↩︎
- Crude Oil; Trading Economics (https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil) ↩︎
- Mohammad Najibullah; Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mohammad_Najibullah) ↩︎
- The Battle of Chernobyl – Full Documentary; Discovery Channel; 2006 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MVGoDAb5Jqo) ↩︎
- 1991 Soviet Union referendum; Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991_Soviet_Union_referendum) ↩︎
- Former Soviet Countries See More Harm From Breakup; Gallop; 19 September 2013 (https://news.gallup.com/poll/166538/former-soviet-countries-harm-breakup.aspx) ↩︎
- The Rulers; Levada Center (https://web.archive.org/web/20210304161956/https://www.levada.ru/2017/02/15/15388/) ↩︎
Leave a Reply