The idea of greenhouse gases such as CO₂ is causing climate change is based on fundamental physics and chemistry and not on elaborate computer models. In fact the first calculations on the effects of greenhouse gas emissions was done by the chemist Svante Arrhenius over 120 years ago¹.

The idea that greenhouse gases trap infrared radiation from the Earth and therefore increase the temperature is not just a theory it is based on fundamental science.

Some people argue that the increase in the temperature of the Earth over recent decades is due to increased radiance from the Sun. Even if this was not totally discredited by scientific observation it would still lead us to question ‘what has happened to the heating effect of the increase level of CO₂‘. It has to be there and people who say that it is ‘not important’ or simply ‘not there’ have a lot of explaining to do. In fact they would have to re-write most of what we know about physics and chemistry.

However, what affect these greenhouse gases have on the Earth climate is complicated. Much of the heat goes into the sea, there are differences between the polar and tropical regions and increased emissions of greenhouse gases are not the only thing that affects the Earths climate.

This is where computer models come in useful. They can simulate the different effects of these different factors.

Man made global warming is happening and will become more and more catastrophic. To understand exactly when and how this catastrophe will unfold depends on computer models.

At the moment we are taking a gamble that the IPCC, all major scientific institutions and the basis of most of the science at the foundation of our technological civilization is wrong. But we are gambling with the lives of our children.

¹ On the Influence of Carbonic Acid in the Air upon the Temperature of the Ground , Svante Arrhenius, Philosophical Magazine and Journal of Science Series 5, Volume 41, April 1896, pages 237-276 (http://www.rsc.org/images/Arrhenius1896_tcm18-173546.pdf)