Party Consensus – War With Russia

Although not explicitly stated, all the major political parties agree with one thing – we are going to war with Russia.

The Conservatives, Liberal Democrats¹, Labour² and even The Green Party³ have similar ‘policies’: more arms for Ukraine, no negotiations and further escalation.

Since all parties agree this will not be an election issue, despite being one of the biggest threats that this country has faced for many years.

As I pointed out in a previous post, the increasing escalation by NATO countries, including the UK is likely to lead to further escalation by Russia, including attacks on UK military sites. Despite the many non-violent routes that could be taken to de-escalate the situation⁴, none of the parties have any plan to avoid the UK getting more involved in the conflict, eventually leading to direct war with Russia.

As I pointed out before Ukraine cannot win without further escalation, including deployment of troops from NATO countries.

The political parties have no real plan about how to even maintain the current level of support for the Ukrainian regime, let alone further escalation.

Even outside the mainstream political parties there seems to be little debate about Ukraine even amongst ‘peace activists’. As tens of thousands of Ukrainians and Russians are killed or seriously injured every month and the threat of the conflict spreading this is subject that urgently needs addressing.

There is one thing worse than planning a war with Russia, and that is mindlessly sleepwalking into it.

People In Europe and USA Want A Negotiated Peace

Despite the rhetoric from the media and political parties, an overwhelming majority of people in Europe and the USA want peace negotiations.

Although the survey⁵ is somewhat strange since people were allowed to give two answers and therefore the totals add up to more than 100%, it does show the desire for proper negotiations.

Outside the Western ‘bubble’ the call for negotiations is undoubtedly stronger. Few countries outside the West have imposed sanctions against Russia.

A so-called Peace Conference is being organized in Switzerland on 15 and 16 June, but Russia has not been invited. Although Zelenskyy has accused Russia and China of trying to sabotage the conference⁶ even President Biden is not attending since he has a fund-raiser with George Cluney and Julia Roberts⁷.

Brazil and China have called presented a joint proposal for peace negotiations with the participation of Russia and Ukraine⁸ but there seems to be little reaction from Western powers. The proposal is very similar to that proposed by China in 2023⁹ which likewise received little response.

Military expenditure (% of GDP) – United Kingdom¹⁰

Get Serious!

Despite the strong words coming from Rishi Sunak, Keir Starmer and Caroline Lucas and none of them willing to consider peace negotiations there are no real proposals to prepare for conflict with Russia. Both the Conservative and Labour parties have promised to increase military spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2030 or “when economic conditions allow”¹¹. This compares to the 6-7% the UK spent in the 1960s.

Shortages in personnel and equipment means that the UK is totally unprepared for a high intensity war¹², and so even increasing to Cold War levels of military expenditure will probably not be sufficient. Russia currently manufactures seven times as much ammunition as Western arms makers¹³.

Is the Green Party, Conservatives or Labour willing to spend the tens of billions of pounds on preparing for the war with Russia they are heading for?

Who Will Be Willing To Fight?

Although the Conservatives have proposed to bring back National Service¹⁴ there seems to be little willingness to serve in the armed forces.

Nearly one third of 18-40 year olds would refuse to serve in the armed forces even if the UK was under imminent threat of invasion, and only 11% would volunteer¹⁵.

The reasons for this lack of willingness to serve in the armed forces is not clear. It could be related to the loss of trust in government¹⁶. This may be particularly true when it comes to armed forces, where the recent interventions in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya and Syria have failed to fulfil their stated aims.

Industrial Production

There are other elements of the UK’s industrial base which require urgent attention, such as the steel industry and the capacity to produce ammunition.¹⁷

As the UK and other Western countries have moved from a manufacturing to a service economy, they no longer have the basis on which to participate in a long term war of attrition. For example, the UK’s steel industry has suffered decades of decline¹⁸. Unlike Russia which sees its industrial production as an essential strategic asset, countries such as the UK have outsourced its manufacturing capacity to the lowest bidder such as China and India.

The Nuclear Option

The UK does have its ‘independent nuclear deterrent‘ – the Trident nuclear missile system.

The UK has been involved in a proxy war with Russia, which now includes hitting targets within Russia itself with UK supplied weapons. Russia, as well as many other commentators, believe that the UK military have direct involvement in programming and targetting these weapons¹⁹. Russia has already called in the envoys in Moscow and stated that UK military sites²⁰ may be targetted as a result of this.

The first point about this is that the UK has not been deterred from crossing Russian red lines by the fact that Russia has a far larger nuclear weapons arsenal.

The second point is that Russia has repeatedly stated that it will not refrain from attacking NATO countries if it thinks it is necessary because it is worried that it may lead to direct Russia-NATO conflict with the possibility of this escalating to nuclear war. In fact, it has publicized the fact that it is carrying out exercises for the use of nuclear weapons²¹. Russia is also overhauling its old nuclear shelters²² and building portable nuclear bomb shelters²³.

Nuclear deterrence has already failed.

Plan For Peace Not War

While the majority of the people in the world want a negotiated settlement, Western leaders are unwilling to enter peace negotiations with Russia unless it retreats to pre-2014 borders. After tens, if not hundreds of thousands of lives lost on the Russian side and continuing security concerns this is not going to happen. Sanctions are not working, Putin is not going to get overthrown, the Russians are not running out of weapons or soldiers, they will not “go away and shut up”²⁴, Ukraine has already lost – this war is now between NATO and Russia with the Ukrainians supplying the dead bodies.

People spout “Putin cannot be allowed to win”, “Putin is an evil dictator”… Even if this is true it does not have any relevance to how you stop the killing and end this conflict. Are people naive enough to think that ‘the good guys’ always wins?