This post was going to be ‘a few notes on the war in Ukraine’. However, I have decided to give it some focus, which will encompass what I wanted to say previously.
Russia has expressed its criteria for the end of hostilities1. These are:
- Ukraine ceases military action
- changes its constitution to enshrine neutrality,
- acknowledges Crimea as Russian territory,
- recognizes the separatist republics of Donetsk and Lugansk as independent states.
The Ukrainian government has responded by saying Ukraine is open to discussing Russia’s demand of neutrality as long as it’s given security guarantees, though it won’t surrender a “single inch” of territory2.
The Best Practical Outcome, Not The Utopian Perfect Outcome
Although, at the moment, I think that for Ukraine to accept these conditions is the best practical outcome, I would like to make a more general point.
Often people state possible outcomes that are totally unrealistic. These can range from ‘the working class should rise up and overthrow the capitalist system’ to ‘Russia should withdraw from Ukraine, give up Crimea and allow Ukraine to join NATO’ – they are not going to happen in the foreseeable future.
There were similar mistakes made in Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya. Regime change in these countries, with the stated hope of “restoring democracy”, was at best a utopian dream. With a death toll in the millions, the people in these countries are probably worse off than they were before. In Afghanistan, after 20 years of occupation, the country has been handed back to the Taliban. The Disaster Emergency Committee report 1 million children are at risk of dying this winter and 95% of people in Afghanistan do not have enough to eat3.
As thousands more die as we aim for an unrealistic outcome in Ukraine, we could end up being forced to accept the terms on offer now.
The Mad Man Who Cannot Be Trusted
Kim Jong-un, Saddam Hussein, Colonel Gaddafi along with many others have been portrayed as mentally unstable and untrustworthy. Now President Putin is being treated likewise.
However much I dislike the actions of the Russian state, headed by Putin, I see no evidence that he is any more unstable and untrustworthy than most other world leaders (at the moment, Boris Johnson is the UK Prime Minister).
By claiming mental instability and untrustworthiness in other immediately gives the excuse of rejecting any proposed peace deal. There is no need to try and ‘give peace a chance’.
As many people realize, Russia was promised that NATO would move “not one inch eastward” with similar promises made by Bush, Genscher, Kohl, Gates, Mitterrand, Thatcher, Hurd, Major, and Woerner4.
Despite the narrative that Putin is a madman who wants the return of the Russian Empire, there seems to be little evidence for that. What is evident is that Russia has serious concerns about the expansion of NATO and the placement of missile systems on its borders5. Even if Putin is a ‘madman’, these concerns are held by many in Russia and are likely to be held by any future Russian leader.
Russia has also previously called for “a Sweeping New Security Deal With NATO”6. This included:
- Do not deploy offensive weapons in states neighbouring Russia, including countries not in the alliance, a reference to Ukraine.
- A ban on military exercises at strengths of more than a brigade in a zone along both sides of Russia’s western border,
Ousting Putin
One idea that has been expressed several times is that the imposition of sanctions and the humiliation of the Russian armed forces in Ukraine would lead to ‘the madman’ Putin being replaced.
First, there is little evidence that sanctions have this effect. Crippling sanctions in North Korea have not led to Kim Jong-un being replaced. Saddam Hussein survived over 10 years under severe sanction that resulted in over a million deaths in Iraq in what some UN officials called ‘genocide’7.
Rather worryingly, there is an example of a new regime coming to power after years of hardship caused by war reparations – Germany after World War I.
While it is possible to dream of Putin being replaced by someone much more willing to accept NATO demands, the opposite may be true. Putin can be seen as some as a appeaser – he supported the invasion of Afghanistan, did little over the invasion of Iraq and even offered to join NATO8.
Peace With Continuing Conflict
One of the justifications that the Russian government used for the invasion of Ukraine was to give some eastern regions’ independence. While I personally do not believe this was the main motivation and that the call for independence resulted to some extent from interference by Russia, it does bring up an important point.
Will it mean that Ukraine will use military force to oust those in control of Donetsk and Luhansk? These areas were given a “temporary Order of Local Self-Governance” under the Minsk Agreements in an attempt to end the long-running civil war.
Will a ‘peace deal’ in which Ukraine will not be surrendering a “single inch” of territory2 mean the continuation of the conflict in these areas?
Who Is Being Armed
As with Libya, there is a problem about who is actually being armed. Both sides have involved non-regular forces, with a growing issue of Fascist elements within Ukraine9,10.
The inflow of arms could destabilize, not just Ukraine, but many of the surrounding areas.
Conclusion
It seems very unlikely that Russia will give up its strategically critical base in Crimea and the surrounding area without a fight.
The eastern regions of Donetsk and Luhansk have already been given temporary autonomous status as part of an ongoing peace process. If Ukraine tries to retake them, the bloodshed will continue.
The advance of NATO onto the borders of Ukraine is a legitimate concern for Russia. While the USA and its allies can invade countries on the other side of the world due to ‘security concerns’ it is expected that Russia (and China) can have little say what happens on their borders.
The longer the conflict carries on and the more arms that flow into the area, the greater probability of destabilizing the area if not nuclear armed Russia itself.
The increase in tensions between Russia and the USA and Europe with subsequent military build up11 is not a way to peace, but will eventually lead to war.
The ceasefire terms offered by Russia seems to be the best way forward at the moment.
1 Russia will stop ‘in a moment’ if Ukraine meets terms – Kremlin, Reuters 7 March 2022 (https://www.reuters.com/world/kremlin-says-russian-military-action-will-stop-moment-if-ukraine-meets-2022-03-07/)
2 Ukraine Open to Russia’s Neutrality Demand But Won’t Yield Territory, Aide Says, Bloomberg 9 March 2022 (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-09/ukraine-open-to-neutrality-but-won-t-yield-territory-aide-says)
3 Afghanistan Crisis Appeal, Disaster Emergency Committee 2022 (https://www.dec.org.uk/appeal/afghanistan-crisis-appeal)
4 NATO Expansion: What Gorbachev Heard, National Security Archive (https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-book/russia-programs/2017-12-12/nato-expansion-what-gorbachev-heard-western-leaders-early)
5 United States missile defense complex in Poland, Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_missile_defense_complex_in_Poland)
6 Russia Lays Out Demands for a Sweeping New Security Deal With NATO, New York Times 17 December 2021 (https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/17/world/europe/russia-nato-security-deal.html is behind a paywall. A copy can be found at https://www.euvolution.com/prometheism-transhumanism-posthumanism/nato-2/russia-lays-out-demands-for-a-sweeping-new-security-deal-with/)
7 Sanctioned genocide: Was ‘the price’ of disarming Iraq worth it?, Relief Web International, 10 June 2003 (https://reliefweb.int/report/iraq/sanctioned-genocide-was-price-disarming-iraq-worth-it)
8 Minsk Agreements, Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minsk_agreements#Minsk_Protocol)
9 Commentary: Ukraine’s neo-Nazi problem, Reuters 19 March 2018 (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-cohen-ukraine-commentary-idUSKBN1GV2TY)
10 Ukrainian neo-Nazis torture Jewish anti-war MMA athlete, World Socialist Website, 9 March 2022 (https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2022/03/09/umma-m09.html)
11 EU leaders announce intention to collectively rearm in face of Putin threat, Guardian 11 March 2022 (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/11/eu-leaders-announce-intention-collectively-rearm-putin-threat-russia-ukraine)
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