![](https://www.plux.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Ukraine-Red-Lines.png)
Why is Russia so concerned that if Ukraine is given weapons to attack targets inside Russia, it could lead to direct Russia-NATO conflict and possibly nuclear war?
A naive analysis would just ask why, if Russia can attack targets inside Ukraine, then surely Ukraine can attack targets inside Russia. Although this seems like a rational argument, there are strong why this could escalate to direct NATO-Russia confrontation and nuclear war.
As United States Secretary of Defense during the Cuban Missile Crisis, Robert McNamara stated1:
Kennedy was rational; Khrushchev was rational; Castro was rational. Rational individuals came that close to total destruction of their societies. And that danger exists today.
War Of Attrition
The initial Russian invasion could have led to a negotiated settlement2, however, after the failure of these negotiations it was obvious that the war would take longer than originally planned.
There was therefore a change of tactic by the Russians to carry out a war of attrition. This involved withdrawal by Russia, from some areas, such as Kherson. While this was reported in the West as a major blow to Russia3, this was option suggested by Sergey Surovikin (General Armageddon) before the withdrawal. Extensive fortifications were then built by Russia along the conflict zone – known as the Surovikin Line4.
Although Ukraine had an extensive military and even arms production, it could not compete with Russian military production and without Western support Ukraine would have run out of weapons very early on5. Therefore, the war of attrition is against NATO. Despite claims to the contrary6, Russia is now massively outproducing Western arms manufacturers7. Admiral Rob Bauer, Nato’s most senior military official, told the Warsaw Security Forum that in terms of NATO arms stocks “the bottom of the barrel is now visible”8.
Territorial gain has not been a major Russian objective, compared with depleting Ukrainian and NATO’s ability to fight a war.
Weapons Manufacture, Storage and Distribution
In a major military conflict such as the one in Ukraine, a large part of the operation is logistics. This is not just weapons but the hundreds of thousands of soldiers need feeding, medical supplies, toilet roll etc. Just in terms of arms supply, usage is massive, with over 20,000 artillery shells being used by Russia every day9. These are prime targets in degrading your enemy’s ability to fight a war.
When David Cameron said that weapons supplied by the UK could be used to attack targets inside Russia, there was a strong reaction from Russia, with warmings that UK military sites may be targetted by Russia10. Secretary of State Antony Blinken11 and Secretary-General of NATO, Jens Stoltenberg, have made similar statements12.
![](https://www.plux.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/ho-chi-minh-200x300.png)
As well as weapons being depleted, there is also a growing shortage of cannon fodder in Ukraine13 and President Macron of France has suggested that French troops could be deployed in Ukraine14.
This led to the French and UK being summoned to the Kremlin, where stark warnings were given15. At the same time, Russia announced tactical nuclear weapons drills16.
The equivalent of attacks on targets inside Russia would be equivalent to Russia attacking targets inside NATO countries. Although President Putin has said there is ‘no need’ for using nuclear weapons in Ukraine17, he has warned that they would be willing to attack NATO targets if NATO assets are used in attacks inside Russia even this risks escalation and the possible use of nuclear weapons.
The targetting of the logistic infrastructure would be similar to the way that the USA bombed Laos and Cambodia during the Vietnam War to disrupt the Ho Chi Minh trail. Although Laos and Cambodia were not officially involved in the war, they were used by the Vietnamese to transport troops and equipment and therefore targetted by the USA.
Strategic Targets
Another concern for Russia is that strategic targets are being hit in Russia. For example, two early warning radar was recently damaged by Ukrainian actions18, 19. While previous strategic bases nuclear bases have been targetted by Ukraine20 there was some justification for this in that the base was being used in attacks against Ukraine. However, there seems little for Ukraine to gain by targetting Russian nuclear early warning systems. Is the Ukraine war being used as a mask to hide a wider NATO agenda against Russia?
NATO Support In Targetting
Attacks on long range targets within Russia can only be done with GPS positioning and reconnaissance data. It is unlikely that Ukraine will have this without extensive NATO support. Many of the systems such as Storm Shadow can be pre-configured and there is a big question about where this is done.
If all of this is done by NATO countries and all the Ukrainian military have to do is press the button then who actually carries out the attack?
Nuclear Warnings
Despite what may be heard on the media, there seems to be no intention of Russia using nuclear weapons against Ukrainian forces – there is “no need”. However, there are plenty of warnings21 that further escalation, in particular the use of NATO supplied weapon to attack targets inside Russia could lead to direct Russia-NATO conflict which could end in the use of nuclear weapons.
In particular the targetting of Russian nuclear early warning systems is particularly worrying. Would like-for-like response from Russia could be targetting Fylingdales early warning system in Yorkshire.
- The Fog Of War; 2003 (http://www.errolmorris.com/film/fow_transcript.html) ↩︎
- Ukraine and Russia explore neutrality plan in peace talks; Financial Times; 16 March 2022 (https://www.ft.com/content/7b341e46-d375-4817-be67-802b7fa77ef1) ↩︎
- Russian troops retreat from Kherson in new blow to Putin; Politico; 9 November 2022 (https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-withdraw-troops-kherson-ukraine-war-sergei-surovikin/) ↩︎
- Ukraine’s front-line forces are trying to fight their way through Russia’s formidable Surovikin line. Here’s what that is; Business Insider; 6 September 2023 (https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-front-line-forces-fighting-through-russia-surovikin-line-2023-9) ↩︎
- Russia has destroyed most of Ukraine’s defence industry – presidential adviser; Reuters; 31 March 2022 (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/russia-destroyed-most-ukraines-defence-101722366.html) ↩︎
- Russians running out of arms in Ukraine, says UK spy chief; Financial Times; 11 October 2022 (https://www.ft.com/content/9f09fc66-19a8-4cdc-ab05-1ed8cf2d9d5e) ↩︎
- Russian manufacturers are making up to 7 times as much ammunition as Western arms makers, Estonian defense official says; 14 September 2023 (https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-ammunition-manufacturing-ukraine-west-officials-2023-9) ↩︎
- Ukraine war: Western allies say they are running out of ammunition; BBC; 3 October 2023 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66984944) ↩︎
- Russia and Ukraine are firing 24,000 or more artillery rounds a day; NBC; 11 November 2022 (https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/russia-ukraine-war-ammo-rcna56210) ↩︎
- Russia warns Britain it could strike back after Cameron remark on Ukraine; Reuters; 6 May 2024 (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-warns-it-can-strike-british-military-targets-after-cameron-remarks-2024-05-06/) ↩︎
- Inside the White House, a Debate Over Letting Ukraine Shoot U.S. Weapons Into Russia; New York Times; 22 May 2024 (https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/22/us/politics/white-house-ukraine-weapons-russia.html) ↩︎
- Kyiv has right to strike Russian targets ‘outside Ukraine’, says Nato chief; Financial Times; 22 February 2024 (https://www.ft.com/content/175bd28f-1eb8-4f57-9cf4-110cca055747) ↩︎
- Ukraine’s Manpower Crisis: No Amount of Money or Aid Can Solve It; New Eastern Outlook; 5 March 2024 (https://journal-neo.su/2024/03/05/ukraines-manpower-crisis-no-amount-of-money-or-aid-can-solve-it/) ↩︎
- Macron says ‘nothing ruled out,’ including using Western troops, to stop Russia winning Ukraine war; CNN; 27 February 2024 (https://edition.cnn.com/2024/02/27/europe/france-macron-troops-ukraine-intl/index.html) ↩︎
- ‘Dangerous’: Russia Summons French And British Envoys Over Remarks On Ukraine War; News 18; 7 May 2024 (https://www.news18.com/world/russia-kremlin-summons-french-british-ambassadors-emmanuel-macron-david-cameron-ukraine-war-remarks-8880294.html) ↩︎
- Putin orders tactical nuclear weapons drills in response to Western ‘threats’; CNN; 7 May 2024 (https://edition.cnn.com/2024/05/06/europe/putin-tactical-nuclear-weapon-drill-russia-ukraine-intl/index.html) ↩︎
- Putin says ‘no need’ for using nuclear weapons in Ukraine; PBS; 27 October 2022 (https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/vladimir-putin-rules-out-using-nuclear-weapons-in-ukraine) ↩︎
- Strike On Russian Strategic Early Warning Radar Site Is A Big Deal; The War Zone; 24 May 2024 (https://www.twz.com/news-features/strike-on-russian-strategic-early-warning-radar-site-is-a-big-deal) ↩︎
- Ukraine drone targets second Russian long-range military radar, Kyiv source says; Reuters; 27 May 2024 (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-drone-targets-russian-early-warning-radar-record-distance-kyiv-source-2024-05-27/) ↩︎
- Details of the two Russian military airbases hit by explosions; The Guardian; 5 December 2022 (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/dec/05/details-of-the-two-russian-military-airbases-hit-by-explosions) ↩︎
- Nuclear rhetoric and escalation management in Russia’s war against Ukraine: A chronology; Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik, Research Division International Security, Working Paper Nr. 2/2023, August 2023 (https://www.swp-berlin.org/en/publication/nuclear-rhetoric-and-escalation-management-in-russias-war-against-ukraine) ↩︎
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