Ukraine, The Middle East And Climate Change

When discussing tackling climate change, it is important to realize the role of fossil fuel in geopolitical power struggles. One of the reasons that reducing reliance on fossil fuel to combat climate change is problematic is the strategic advantage of controlling oil supply.

As I stated in a previous post:

Ownership or control of energy supply has always been a major source of power and wealth – from how owns the mill to oil barons and wars in the Middle East. This along with climate change makes the energy one of the most important issues both nationally and internationally.

More specifically about the Middle East it has been said¹:

“Whoever controls the Middle East controls the global oil spigot and whoever controls the global oil spigot can control the global economy”

We are not just asking those in power to give up a ‘cheap’ source of energy. We are asking them to give up one of the main ways they see themselves exerting power and control in the world.

However, it is important to note that there are many factors in determining political decisions: I am not saying it is all about oil since, as always, multiple factors come into play. However, understanding that control of fossil fuel supplies, not just the huge profits from them, is an important factor when it comes to understanding the addiction to fossil fuels.

The British Empire

At the beginning of the 20th century, it became apparent that oil was going to overtake coal as an important source of power. In 1903 British Foreign Secretary Lord Lansdowne warned Russia and Germany that the British would “regard the establishment of a naval base or of a fortified port in the Persian Gulf by any other power as a very grave menace to British interests, and we should certainly resist it with all the means at our disposal.”²

As First Lord of the Admiralty, Winston Churchill decided to complete the transition from coal to oil powered ships but noted, however, “oil was not found in appreciable quantities in our islands. If we required it we must carry it by sea in peace or war from distant countries”³

Britain already had a strong strategic interest in the Middle East as the gateway to its colonies in the Far East, particularly India, and therefore control of the region was already an important aim.

Country	Oil Production December 2023⁴
United States	13,315,000
Russia	10,126,000
Saudi Arabia (OPEC)	8,950,000
Canada	4,971,000
Iraq (OPEC)	4,375,000
China	4,176,000
Iran (OPEC)	4,064,000
Brazil	3,585,000
United Arab Emirates (OPEC)	3,300,000
Kuwait (OPEC)	2,644,000

US ‘Takeover’

Although Britain had been declining as a superpower, the second world war had seen the USA take over the dominant role. Even as early as 1943 Roosevelt had stated “the defense of Saudi Arabia is vital to the defense of the United States.”⁵.

This link was further strengthened when the USA abandoned the Gold Standard and converted to the oil standard in the 1970s. While having to accept higher oil prices after the oil shock in the early 1970s this was rewarded by petrodollars flowing into the banks, corporations and financial institutions⁶.

President Carter later stated the US policy on the Middle East in early 1980⁷ in what later became known as The Carter Doctrine.

“Let our position be absolutely clear: An attempt by any outside force to gain control of the Persian Gulf region will be regarded as an assault on the vital interests of the United States of America, and such an assault will be repelled by any means necessary, including military force.”

However, the US and Britain were not the only powers that had interest in the Middle East. The Soviet Union was also trying to gain control and influence. During the World War II, Iran had been partitioned between the Soviet Union and Britain, however, following the war the Soviet Union had not withdrawn from the county. This led to the Iran Crisis of 1946⁸. It is worth noting that in two nuclear apocalypse films of the 1980s – Threads and The Day After – the nuclear conflict starts with tensions over Iran.

The Oil States

The United States and Russia are similar in that their large and geographically favourable position means that they have large amounts of natural resources – in particular oil.

The USA’s strong economy is partly based on it access to large quantities of natural resources, including large amounts of fertile land, coal, iron, fresh water, oil and gas. These are used to supply US productive industry.

The Middle East states, however, have limited industrial capacity and profits from exporting oil are often invested in other countries – particularly the USA.

Russia on the other hand is between these two positions with a reasonable industrial capacity and spare oil and gas for export. It has been a major oil producer, despite the rapid decline with the break-up of the Soviet Union.

Superpower Rivalry

As pointed out above, this is not just about oil. Even before oil became the driving force behind our industrialized society, there were superpower rivalries. The Great Game¹⁰ and Crimea War¹¹ show that these tensions may not be just about Putin, The Threat of Communism or Tsarist ambitions.

Russia, with its large fossil fuel supplies, growing industrial output and international influence (due to oil and gas production), is seen as a threat to Western power.

Some Western observers have suggested that the war in Ukraine might lead to the disintegration of Russia¹² and many “have been not only speculating about Russia’s collapse but agitating for it”¹³. There are strong arguments that the West are at least partially responsible for the Ukraine crisis¹⁴.

While it is generally accepted that the wars in Iraq were fought for oil the role of control of oil supplies¹⁵ is not so well understood when it comes to tensions between the West and Russia despite Russia being called “a gas station masquerading as a country”¹⁶.

China, despite its large oil production, is still by far the largest oil importer in the world. Although China does not get its international status from oil production, it does from exporting goods and infrastructure projects for which it needs large energy supplies.

In the 1940s the USA blockaded Japan, stopping oil supplies and other goods which eventually lead to the bombing of Pearl Harbour¹⁷. Again, controlling oil supplies in a major source of international power.

Climate Change

While there are many factors responsible for the poor response to the threat of climate change and our continued addiction to fossil fuel, control of oil supply has had a long history of being used as a source of geopolitical power.

There are other ways that countries can gain geopolitical power, for example China providing manufactured goods and infrastructure projects, Russia is a leading supplier with nuclear¹⁸, the control of financial institutions… There are many strands when looking at geopolitics, but undoubtedly the use of oil supply as a weapon is an important one.

One of the driving forces for seeking renewable energy supply is to escape from this dependence on fossil fuels controlled by superpowers. Although renewable energy still needs resources they are not reliant on vaste quantities of a single one – the world uses nearly 1,000,000,000 barrels of oil every day¹⁹.

The fight against climate change is inextricably linked to the fight for a more peaceful and fairer world.